Yes, the Yankees still scare me

It's mid-July, they Yankees are in third place, ten back and a game below .500. And yet they still scare me.

Simply put, they have resources like no other team in baseball. They can afford to pick up guys who are underperforming and have huge contracts even if those guys make only minimal contributions over their current players. If they have someone who is overpaid and is underperforming, they can ship the player out to another team while still paying most of his contract. As a Red Sox fan, I'm aware that the Red Sox have the ability to do this on occasion (how much are we paying Renteria this year and next to man short for the Braves again?) but not to the extent that the Yankees can. And if you think their resources are impressive now, keep in mind that they'll be playing in a new ballpark in 2009.

In other words, they have the means to address many weaknesses, which makes it tough to look at the standings and say "Ten back in the division, eight back in the wildcard, it's mid July and they're still below .500? Stick a fork in them!" They also have so many players on the team who are capable of putting together hot stretches that you almost expect the team to go through a couple stretches where they win eight in a row, sixteen out of twenty, etc.

I'm just not used to the Yankees struggling at this point in the season. It feels like being in a cheesey horror movie where you know the quasi-human villain isn't really dead, but one where your character is at least smart enough to observe the body from a distance rather than being the fool who stands over the body and says "I'm pretty sure he's dead."

It's so unnerving that back on May 30th, I sent the following mail to a friend who is a huge Yankees fan. (For those playing at home, the Yankees were thirteen and a half games back, and seven games below .500 and tied with the Devil Rays for last place at the time.)

What in the name of Billy Martin is going on in New York?

I was watching part of a Yankees game on YES over the weekend and I couldn't believe my ears. The announcers were talking about how the Yankees had gotten jobbed on two blown calls on stolen bases and a questionable strike call to end the game. No problem, it happens. (Especially since Jeter has all but patented the short-armed phantom tag on stolen base attempts.) What struck me was that the announcers said the Yankees were having a special meeting with MLB to discuss the calls. Ten minutes later, Michael Kay was talking about how the Yankees had just had a grueling stretch, facing three straight division leaders, and had acquitted themselves well by winning three out of eight games. He explained his logic in more depth by saying that if you combined those three teams' wins and losses, the rest of MLB had an average winning percentage of .350 against them, whereas the Yankees had just compiled a winning percentage of .375. The YES gang spent the rest of the evening talking about how Guidry led the team in '78 and how when one team faces more injuries than another team in the first half of the year, the commissioner's office instructs the injury fairy (who is apparently second cousin to the Aflac duck) to even things out after the all star break.

There are people pointing out that the Yankees flat out suck right now, right? No more "when you look at runs scored vs. runs allowed, we should be at least two games ahead of the Devil Rays" little victories or "if we sweep the next series, we'll be within eight games of the playoffs if the season were to end today" crap. I mean, there are actually sane Yankees fans on this planet who can look at what's going on intelligently, right?

I don't consider the season over by any stretch. I qualified "suck" with "right now". The Yankees still scare me. I'm assuming they won't stay in last place in the division for long. The Yankees have four pitchers on pace to pitch in over 80 games, but I trust Cashman will pick up additional serviceable relievers when Proctor, Myers and Vizcaino's arms all fall off. While I don't expect Posada will continue to hit over .350, I also don't expect Cano and Abreu to continue to hit below .250. I expect Cashman to fleece teams into somehow giving up Todd Helton, Torii Hunter, Johan Santana for Phelps, Pavano, some overhyped prospects who will completely wash out, a bag of balls and a blank check and go on an absolute tear in the not too distant future. I expect Jeter, Damon, Posada, Giambi, Cano and Matsui to take turns putting the team on their backs to eek out close games while A-Rod hits .800 with a 2.500 slugging percentage when the Yankees in games where either team is leading by at least four runs. I expect that at some point, there'll be at least a 50/50 chance that a Yankee starter can get through six innings and give up three runs or less. That, or Steinbrenner will actually name Costanza as the new GM.

Please tell me that there are Yankees fans who have some sense for what's going on with the team right now and that Michael Kay and Suzyn "That's the Most Dramatic Sandwich I've Ever Eaten" Waldman are just morons. I don't know why I need to know this, but I do. You're my only hope.

Thankfully, my friend has a sense of humor and didn't reply with something like "We so own you that even when we're fourteen games back you're scared."

Since that time, the Yankees have played better. They had a nine game win streak and are just a game below .500 at the time of this writing. (Although that does mean that apart from that stretch of games, they were still below .500.) If memory serves, their first twenty three games after the All Star break come against teams that are below .500, so they definitely have opportunities to get back on another hot streak.

Matsui and Cano have hit better. Jeter and Posada have cooled off a little but are still hitting well. Giambi's on the DL, though I've heard a few Yankees fans say that getting him out of the lineup is a huge plus for the team. Damon's struggled with injuries, has been in and out of the lineup and has even seen some time at first base. (Who had 1.5 seasons on the over/under for when the Yankees would start trying to move Damon? I thought he'd have an off year, but that Yankees fans would still be happy with the contract until the end of this year.)

I don't know what to make of A-Rod. His month-by-month OPS: 1.297 in April, .782 in May, 1.281 in June, .835 in July so far. He's having an incredible (contract) year, but he still doesn't scare me as much as guys like Jeter, Posada and Matsui if the game's on the line. A-Rod's contract situation and the Yankees' current stance fascinate me, but that's a topic for another post.

Clemens has not pitched well enough to justify his contract, but he has a lower ERA than Pettite, Mussina or Igawa and pitched better than you might expect from a soon-to-be forty five year old with a tired groin. Mussina has pitched better over the past six weeks. The Yankees haven't lost a starting pitcher in the past month or two and should have Hughes back in their rotation soon. The bullpen's still very much overworked. Farnsworth, Bruney, Myers, Vizcaino and Proctor are on pace to pitch in between 68 and 81 games each over the course of the season. I can't imagine their current non-Rivera relievers will be terribly dependable at the end of the season, but I still expect that the Yankees will pick up more serviceable relievers prior to the trade deadline. Otsuka and Gagne are the two names most commonly thrown out there in connection with the Yankees.

So what does this all mean? I keep telling myself that if the Red Sox play well that they make the playoffs and that's all that matters. And yet, I still peek at the Yankees' score while I'm watching or listening to the Sox. I check the box scores and laugh when I see Vizcaino and Proctor pitching in their third straight games. I cringe when I hear about MLB trade rumors that involve players who could help the Yankees (Teixeira and Helton come quickly to mind). I think about how the Yankees have yet to play their best ball.

I think about how the Red Sox have struggled over the past six weeks. Then I take a deep breath and exhale. I watch Papi put a ball into the right field seats at Fenway for the first time since April. I watch Crisp driving the ball to leg out a stand up triple. I watch Varitek put one into the center field bleachers. I watch Lugo place after a perfect bunt down the third base line. I watch Pedroia battle and battle and finally lift a ball over the second baseman to knock in a run. I see Crisp and Pedroia pull off a double steal. I watch Timlin run his scoreless innings streak into double digits. I watch Delcarmen start to trust his stuff. I see Drew looking comfortable in the leadoff role. I watch Hinske homer when he gets a start because Drew's hamstring is acting up. I remember that the Red Sox have yet to play their best ball either, but they have a ten game lead in the division.

Then I wonder what my father's friend, a die hard Yankees fan, will say during the Red Sox / Mariners games early next month and smile. As the t-shirts say, life is good.

At The Break

A ton of thoughts about what's happened so far and the rest of the season have been running through my head for weeks. I figured that creating a blog (like the other cool kids) would help me get the thoughts down on paper...er...HTML would help clear my head.

The All Star Break is winding down. I'm excited and anxious about the second half. I keep checking the standings to make sure they're right. Ten games up? That's real, right? I read all sorts of articles saying that if the Red Sox continue to play at least .500 ball the Yankees (or Blue Jays...hey, it could happen) would need to blah, blah, blah in order to catch them. We'll get to the Yankees in another post, but first let's take a closer look at the Sox.

The standings haven't changed much in the past month and a half, but that's part of what worries me. If my math is correct, the Sox have been playing .500 ball since June 1st. If you've been watching Manny, Big Papi, Drew, Lugo and Crisp hit over the past six weeks, this probably isn't much of a shock. What in the name of Papa Jack is going on here? There are too many nights where there's a single and/or a walk here or there, but if the wind's not blowing out, nothing's happening with the offense. I was at the extra inning loss in Seattle and watched the thirteen inning loss in Detroit and it feels like they haven't had a clutch hit since May. After two straight innings of missed opportunities, you could almost sense the fly balls, strikeouts and double plays coming. Tie game, top of the twelfth, bases loaded and one out? Sounds like a 5-4-3 ending to the inning.

Before I wonder about the team's hitting woes, let's hear it for Youk, Pedroia, Lowell and Varitek. You have to love the way Youk grinds out at bats and how both he and Pedroia always seem to be in the middle of any Sox rally. Hearing the fans cheer Yoooooouk at road games is always a treat. Pedroia is hitting as well as everyone expected. Yes, I'm kidding. Say what you will about Francona's stubbornness by continuing to stick by Timlin, but he's often made the right call when sticking with someone, like Pedroia this year and Bellhorn in 2004. Lowell and Varitek have been dependable (who expected Lowell to be tied for the team lead in homers at the break?) but you don't want to have to depend on those guys in the second half of the season.

Lugo, Drew and Crisp have strugged in the first half, but will we see more of the same for the rest of the season? Here's hoping the All Star break is exactly what Lugo needs to get out of his funk. Maybe Papi can help him change his last name since we saw that simply changing your number didn't help a former Red Sox shortstop. Crisp has been hitting the ball with more authority and has looked like the player he was prior to the injury early last year. I don't know what to make of Drew. He's looked completely lost so often this year, swinging and missing at pitches where he's badly fooled or making contact on weak swings. Given my vast experience playing the game (a year of T-ball and the following year where the fathers pitched the first half of the season) I have no idea how to tell when a player's problems are physical or mental, but it seemed like Drew was more confident and comfortable in the brief period where he hit leadoff. I'd love to see if he can find his groove again back in the leadoff spot with Youk hitting behind Papi.

Speaking of Papi, let's hope that he and Manny can get and stay healthy so they can get and stay hot. Ortiz has the highest OPS of the Sox regulars, but his power numbers and Manny's are way down from recent years and neither player has carried the offense this year for any stretch. Looking back at the extra inning game in Detroit, I'm still blown away that the Tigers intentionally walked Ortiz three times and Manny was unable to come through each time. Apparently, Papi's going in for an MRI. If he needs to go on the DL, waste no time. Let Manny DH, bring Ellsbury back up and get Ortiz healthy. As to Manny's struggles? Maybe he just needs to rub Tavarez' head more often.

I have to mention Mirabelli, partially because he's my Mother's favorite player. She and I were at a couple Sox/Braves games back in 2001, just after the Sox had picked up Mirabelli in a trade with Texas after Varitek had gone down with an injury. We had great seats for the Saturday and Sunday games and had a great view of Mirabelli spending most of those two games leaning over the dugout railing, talking non-stop to anyone and everyone who leaned over the railing. My mother has a signed Doug Mirabelli jersey and a Globe picture or three of him smiling held to the refrigerator by various magnets. I was at the game in San Diego where he was booed mercilessly by the Padres fans and was disappointed to read a Globe article that claimed that "Red Sox and Padres fans who were united only in booing Doug Mirabelli". I understand the Padres fans dislike him, but he never asked to be traded to the Padres and was told they'd traded for him so he could be their starting catcher...and then they signed Piazza. Both Towers and Mirabelli said things publicly that they shouldn't. The Padres fans side with Towers, and I'm sure I would too if I were a Padres fan, but I don't understand why so many people with Red Sox ties have taken shots at Mirabelli. If he can hit over .250 the rest of the way and catch Wakefield reliably, then leave Kotteras in Pawtucket. On a lighter note, he is remembered fondly (if comically) in San Francisco as I read one or two articles that referred to an area in the outfield as Mirabelli's Alley because he hit two triples to that area, including the first triple in the park's history.

The starting pitching hasn't been as dominant as some fans would hope, but they've been about what you'd expect. Beckett has been the pitcher most Sox fans expected he would be last year. I'll be honest and admit that I thought he'd struggle after coming back from the avulsion. Back when they traded for Beckett, I was hoping the Sox would also pick up Moises Alou to help toughen Beckett's skin. Dice-K has had flashes of brilliance, outings where he can't fool anyone, and the occasional inning where he can't find the plate. Prior to the last outing in Detroit, he had been pretty dominant. Is he making adjustments to pitching in the States and/or getting a better feel for which pitches of his will work on a given night? Or was the game in Detroit evidence that batters are more likely to adjust to him? Hmmm. Schilling has had great outings and awful outings and, as many would expect from a forty-something, is now on the DL. As with Ortiz, let's hope Schilling doesn't rush and comes back when he's healthy, preferably after an outing or two in the minors. Wakefield and Tavarez have had their moments and their struggles. You have to expect more of the same. Gabbard has been servicable and it will be interesting to see what happens when/if Lester is promoted. As everyone has been saying since April, if Lester can come back and pitch like he did while he was with the Sox last year, the starting pitching will be in great shape for the stretch.

The bullpen has been phenomenal. Okajima may well be the team MVP for the first half and Papelbon has been all but lights out. Delcarmen has looks great as of late. Lopez has done better than anyone could have expected. Donnelly pitched well while he was healthy, which is more than I expected. Snyder has been reliable. Timlin's recent outings may be proof that rumors of his demise were greatly exaggerated. I'd still rather not see him in his old setup role until we've seen more, but I don't mind seeing him get an inning or two here and there when we're up or down three or more runs. If he can get close to his old form, he's a big help down the stretch on the mound. Plus, I just assume he's a positive influence on guys like Papelbon and Delcarmen. Pineiro has had his moments (a couple of them actually good) but he scares me. He lasted two batters longer than I thought he would in that extra inning game in Seattle. I was at that game and seeing him come in from the bullpen made me think of two things.

1. Shouldn't the Mariners bunt against the pitcher with the bum ankle?
2. The last Sox/M's game I'd attended that lasted this long was back in 2000. It lasted nineteen innings (eighteen and a half, really) and ended seconds after the Sox brought in an old Mariners castoff, Jeff Fassero, when Fassero gave up a home run to the first batter he faced.

Surprisingly, Pineiro lasted two batters and a third of an inning longer than Fassero did.

I thought Romero looked terrible and that releasing him was the right call. I remember hoping the Sox would pick him up in a trade in 2005, but from the moment they signed him I thought the move was a mistake. The sight of him coming in from the bullpen filled me with dread. I was shocked when I looked at Romero's stats just now. He had a sub-3 ERA in May and early June before the Sox cut him loose?!? Maybe I was too hard on the guy. He's yet to give up a run with the Phillies. His unique talents as a switch hitting reliever (seriously) are probably better served in the National League anyway.

So, here's my wish list for the second half of the season

• Papi, Schilling and Donnelly get healthy for the stretch run
• Manny goes back to being Manny and starts mashing the ball
• Youk continues to be Youk, ugly facial hair included
• Out of Lugo, Drew and Crisp, at least two of the three hit .280 the rest of the way
  
• Lowell avoids last year's second half swoon and gives Renteria back his glove
• Pena, who reminds me of Pedro Cerrano, butchers fly balls in a different uniform
• Varitek stays healthy and continues to hit the way he has - that .279 looks a lot better than last year's .238
• Pedroia continues to hit and manages his own inside the park home run to fuel the fire in the "Who's faster?" debate with Youkilis
• Ellsbury can bring back a little more life to the team if Papi needs to go on the DL
• Mirabelli goes back to being the happy chatty guy my Mom loves, who also catches Wake well and hits .250 or so
• Beckett continues to roll and doesn't need a trip to the DL, the doctor, or to Moises Alou
• Dice-K continues to adjust, rather than having the hitters adjust to him
• Wakefield finds his form once more
• Gabbard continues to be a serviceable option to pitch until Schilling returns
• Tavarez reminds his infielders where to throw the ball, acts as Manny's scratching post and pitches well, whether that's as a starter or a reliever
• Timlin finds his old form
• Delcarmen continues to shine
• Hansen finds his stuff and makes his way back to the majors
• Okajima continues to be the silent hero he hoped he'd be
• Papelbon stays healthy and continues to dominate
• The Sox play deep into October
  
• I get to fly home for another parade

That's not too much to ask, is it?