Don't Blame Us If We Ever Doubt You, You Know We Couldn't Live Without You

I watched today's game at Safeco Field (hooray last minute StubHub purchase to score first row seats along the third base line) and had to get some thoughts about this team out of my head.

What a season.  I still don't know what to make of the trade.


Gonzalez' contract was big, but reasonable given his production.  It doesn't bother me that he's not emotional on the field, but both this year and down the stretch last year it felt like he wasn't setting the right tone for the team.  Saying last September's collapse was due to too many night games at the end of trips and/or God's plan just doesn't give the impression that he's someone who's going to work harder to change things.  I'd hoped that maybe a second season in Boston would allow him to put some roots down and become more of a presence on the team.  A lot of comments from players did make him sound like a leader (and no, not just in the meeting with owners about Bobby V).  Gonzalez' attitude when things weren't going well didn't help the impression he made.  Between the 2011 and 2012 all star breaks, his power disappeared as did his ability to draw walks.  He didn't agree with anyone's perception that he wasn't driving the ball and he made vague hints about his problems drawing walks, saying he knew what was wrong and couldn't talk about it.  I give Gonzalez a lot of credit for playing right field when that was in the team's best interest due to the black plague running through the roster.  He's a tremendous defensive first baseman and I don't see the Red Sox replacing his production anytime soon.  Here's hoping he does as well in Los Angeles as so many thought he'd do in Boston.

Also, here's hoping Carl Crawford returns to his former self in LA.  Had the trade not happened, I had more hope that Crawford would do well in 2013.  It really sounded like he was trying too hard to justify his salary.  While that may not have helped him perform, it never seemed like his problems were related to his attitude or not caring "enough".  I still think his signing wasn't a great use of the team's resources, but it was easy to keep pulling for Crawford.  In fact, it seemed like when he rejoined the team after the all star break this year that we were seeing the player the Red Sox brass were hoping for.  Throughout Valentine's cryptic comments about Crawford's status and his eventual shutdown, it still felt like Crawford was trying to do what was best for the ballclub.  Granted, it's easier to focus on that when you have an enormous contract, but it was still easy to get excited and believe the next double, the next stolen base was going to be the start of something.

Beckett, on the other hand, seemed hell bent on trying to make everyone hate him.  He was great for most of last year until the stretch run, but he was awful this year but it seemed like he was the only one who couldn't or wouldn't recognize that.  A lot of pitchers hit a bump in the road in their careers, getting to a point where they have to redefine themselves once or even multiple times, acknowledging that what worked before isn't working now and searching for a different approach.  I still appreciate what Beckett did for the Sox in 2007 but with every passing start or ill advised comment, it became tougher to imagine him as an effective pitcher in 2013 and beyond.

So now what?  How do we get excited about this team as they spiral out of control and down the drain while the manager talks about how they're somehow going to win a lot of games this month?  How does the team get back to above .500 next year, let alone fight for a playoff spot?  Will Valentine be back?  Will Papi want to sign another contract?  Who steps up in 2013 and 2014?

Iglesias looks absolutely overmatched at the plate but the Red Sox need to find out whether or not he's part of the team's future.  The team is going absolutely nowhere right now and that's fine on some level.  Let Iglesias get some time with the big league club and (hopefully) start to adjust to major league pitching.  Maybe September stats are misleading (see Pedroia, Dustin 2006) but start the evaluation process now so the club has more of a sense for whether he can handle the starting job in 2013 or if he's a trade chip.  If Iglesias isn't the answer, can Ciriaco be effective enough in the field?

Keep Ellsbury, at least for the first half of 2013.  Even though he's likely to try to sign for megabucks after the 2013 season, his trade value is close to rock bottom right now.  Consider his 2013 season like Beltre in 2010.  He's playing for a contract.  He has to be seriously motivated next year to look at least half as good as he did in 2011, right?

Have realistic expectations for the young starting pitchers.  If Morales and Doubront are both in the rotation, expect at least one of them to have issues to the point where he'll need to be pulled from the rotation.  If you're going to commit to them both at the start of the season, make sure there's a rehabbing veteran who is expected to be ready in June.  Aaron Cook isn't a great example because he wasn't terribly effective but the basic idea is a good one.  Speaking of Aaron Cook, he seems to have a little bit of The Bad Wakefield in him.  I loved seeing him mow down the Mariners with an 81 pitch shutout but that was his high point.  After that, even when Cook had a no hitter and a three run lead in the fifth inning, you had to hold your breath to see if he'd be able to get through the inning.

Will Bard ever be close to the reliable reliever he was until August of 2011?  What's most frustrating for me about his 2012 season is that most people seem to focus on his move to the rotation and forget that he was brutal down the stretch in 2011.  This is a guy who most people expected to be able to close once Papelbon moved on and Bard wanted to go in a completely different direction.  That's not a good sign in terms of a player's confidence.  Here's hoping he starts to find his old stuff.  Maybe the key is to bring him into a couple difficult situations earlier in the game, like a first and third situation with no one out in the sixth inning but get him to focus on the task at hand.  If he can keep the inherited runners from scoring, bonus.  Bard's initial success with the Sox had a 1999 Derek Lowe feel to it.  He just kept performing in bigger and bigger situations until you found yourself wanting him to get the ball in a jam in the eighth inning with runners on base, even though the closer would get the glory in an easier situation in the ninth inning.  Bard's 2010 felt like that.  Maybe he can find some of that next year.

I don't know what to make of Aceves.  He did an admirable job filling in as closer.  Based on what little I know of such things, he looks like he's running on fumes.  He's thrown a ton of innings over the past two seasons.  Even though Valentine anointed him the closer, Valentine has also brought Aceves into some near no-win situations, like bringing him into a one run game with nobody out and the bases loaded in the eighth inning.  That may still have been the right call for the team (relying on your best reliever to get the toughest outs) but it can also cause a player to look bad, especially a guy who wants to be the closer sees he's being brought in for a near guaranteed blown save.  On top of looking gassed, Aceves looks like he's pitching with a chip on his shoulder, and not in a good way.  I don't know how much of that might improve under a different manager, or if this is the big reason why the Yankees let him walk after the 2010 season.

Could Padilla be an effective piece of the bullpen next season?  I hope so.  I want to see him throw the eephus some more and come in just to plunk Texiera a couple times.  I still expect he's going to go all Danny Trejo and throw a machete at a batter at some point.  At least he won't pull a Clemens and claim he thought he was throwing the ball at a runner, as if he was playing wiffle ball or kickball and hitting the runner with the ball counted as an out.

As to the rest of the bullpen, here's hoping Melancon finds himself, that Bailey's effective, that Atchison and Hill are healthy.

With respect to the lineup, I hope they re-sign Papi and Ross and that along with Pedroia, Middlebrooks and Ellsbury that they can put up some runs.

Who should they go after in free agency?  Who knows?  It doesn't look like there are big names out there who are worth big money.  But maybe the Sox can revisit the old Moneyball approach, but with deeper pockets.  I can't remember the exact quote, but if memory serves Billy Beane talked about breaking the season down into thirds to evaluate the team and figure out what to do next.  Maybe the Red Sox should find out who in their system is capable of helping the team get back to the playoffs, then look around and steal a page from the Yankees' old playbook by picking up mid-to-high priced guys mid-season when teams decide to sell or give more playing time to their younger players.  It's not a formula that I expect will help them make the playoffs in 2013, but maybe between the deep pockets and some tradeable assets, that lays the groundwork for 2014.  At the very least, hopefully the team will be relevant and maybe even fun to watch in August and September.

One last thing.  Fire Bobby V.  Yesterday.  He's not to blame for the state of the franchise, but his bizarro communication skills definitely count as "part of the problem".