Monday, September 3, 2012

Don't Blame Us If We Ever Doubt You, You Know We Couldn't Live Without You

I watched today's game at Safeco Field (hooray last minute StubHub purchase to score first row seats along the third base line) and had to get some thoughts about this team out of my head.

What a season.  I still don't know what to make of the trade.


Gonzalez' contract was big, but reasonable given his production.  It doesn't bother me that he's not emotional on the field, but both this year and down the stretch last year it felt like he wasn't setting the right tone for the team.  Saying last September's collapse was due to too many night games at the end of trips and/or God's plan just doesn't give the impression that he's someone who's going to work harder to change things.  I'd hoped that maybe a second season in Boston would allow him to put some roots down and become more of a presence on the team.  A lot of comments from players did make him sound like a leader (and no, not just in the meeting with owners about Bobby V).  Gonzalez' attitude when things weren't going well didn't help the impression he made.  Between the 2011 and 2012 all star breaks, his power disappeared as did his ability to draw walks.  He didn't agree with anyone's perception that he wasn't driving the ball and he made vague hints about his problems drawing walks, saying he knew what was wrong and couldn't talk about it.  I give Gonzalez a lot of credit for playing right field when that was in the team's best interest due to the black plague running through the roster.  He's a tremendous defensive first baseman and I don't see the Red Sox replacing his production anytime soon.  Here's hoping he does as well in Los Angeles as so many thought he'd do in Boston.

Also, here's hoping Carl Crawford returns to his former self in LA.  Had the trade not happened, I had more hope that Crawford would do well in 2013.  It really sounded like he was trying too hard to justify his salary.  While that may not have helped him perform, it never seemed like his problems were related to his attitude or not caring "enough".  I still think his signing wasn't a great use of the team's resources, but it was easy to keep pulling for Crawford.  In fact, it seemed like when he rejoined the team after the all star break this year that we were seeing the player the Red Sox brass were hoping for.  Throughout Valentine's cryptic comments about Crawford's status and his eventual shutdown, it still felt like Crawford was trying to do what was best for the ballclub.  Granted, it's easier to focus on that when you have an enormous contract, but it was still easy to get excited and believe the next double, the next stolen base was going to be the start of something.

Beckett, on the other hand, seemed hell bent on trying to make everyone hate him.  He was great for most of last year until the stretch run, but he was awful this year but it seemed like he was the only one who couldn't or wouldn't recognize that.  A lot of pitchers hit a bump in the road in their careers, getting to a point where they have to redefine themselves once or even multiple times, acknowledging that what worked before isn't working now and searching for a different approach.  I still appreciate what Beckett did for the Sox in 2007 but with every passing start or ill advised comment, it became tougher to imagine him as an effective pitcher in 2013 and beyond.

So now what?  How do we get excited about this team as they spiral out of control and down the drain while the manager talks about how they're somehow going to win a lot of games this month?  How does the team get back to above .500 next year, let alone fight for a playoff spot?  Will Valentine be back?  Will Papi want to sign another contract?  Who steps up in 2013 and 2014?

Iglesias looks absolutely overmatched at the plate but the Red Sox need to find out whether or not he's part of the team's future.  The team is going absolutely nowhere right now and that's fine on some level.  Let Iglesias get some time with the big league club and (hopefully) start to adjust to major league pitching.  Maybe September stats are misleading (see Pedroia, Dustin 2006) but start the evaluation process now so the club has more of a sense for whether he can handle the starting job in 2013 or if he's a trade chip.  If Iglesias isn't the answer, can Ciriaco be effective enough in the field?

Keep Ellsbury, at least for the first half of 2013.  Even though he's likely to try to sign for megabucks after the 2013 season, his trade value is close to rock bottom right now.  Consider his 2013 season like Beltre in 2010.  He's playing for a contract.  He has to be seriously motivated next year to look at least half as good as he did in 2011, right?

Have realistic expectations for the young starting pitchers.  If Morales and Doubront are both in the rotation, expect at least one of them to have issues to the point where he'll need to be pulled from the rotation.  If you're going to commit to them both at the start of the season, make sure there's a rehabbing veteran who is expected to be ready in June.  Aaron Cook isn't a great example because he wasn't terribly effective but the basic idea is a good one.  Speaking of Aaron Cook, he seems to have a little bit of The Bad Wakefield in him.  I loved seeing him mow down the Mariners with an 81 pitch shutout but that was his high point.  After that, even when Cook had a no hitter and a three run lead in the fifth inning, you had to hold your breath to see if he'd be able to get through the inning.

Will Bard ever be close to the reliable reliever he was until August of 2011?  What's most frustrating for me about his 2012 season is that most people seem to focus on his move to the rotation and forget that he was brutal down the stretch in 2011.  This is a guy who most people expected to be able to close once Papelbon moved on and Bard wanted to go in a completely different direction.  That's not a good sign in terms of a player's confidence.  Here's hoping he starts to find his old stuff.  Maybe the key is to bring him into a couple difficult situations earlier in the game, like a first and third situation with no one out in the sixth inning but get him to focus on the task at hand.  If he can keep the inherited runners from scoring, bonus.  Bard's initial success with the Sox had a 1999 Derek Lowe feel to it.  He just kept performing in bigger and bigger situations until you found yourself wanting him to get the ball in a jam in the eighth inning with runners on base, even though the closer would get the glory in an easier situation in the ninth inning.  Bard's 2010 felt like that.  Maybe he can find some of that next year.

I don't know what to make of Aceves.  He did an admirable job filling in as closer.  Based on what little I know of such things, he looks like he's running on fumes.  He's thrown a ton of innings over the past two seasons.  Even though Valentine anointed him the closer, Valentine has also brought Aceves into some near no-win situations, like bringing him into a one run game with nobody out and the bases loaded in the eighth inning.  That may still have been the right call for the team (relying on your best reliever to get the toughest outs) but it can also cause a player to look bad, especially a guy who wants to be the closer sees he's being brought in for a near guaranteed blown save.  On top of looking gassed, Aceves looks like he's pitching with a chip on his shoulder, and not in a good way.  I don't know how much of that might improve under a different manager, or if this is the big reason why the Yankees let him walk after the 2010 season.

Could Padilla be an effective piece of the bullpen next season?  I hope so.  I want to see him throw the eephus some more and come in just to plunk Texiera a couple times.  I still expect he's going to go all Danny Trejo and throw a machete at a batter at some point.  At least he won't pull a Clemens and claim he thought he was throwing the ball at a runner, as if he was playing wiffle ball or kickball and hitting the runner with the ball counted as an out.

As to the rest of the bullpen, here's hoping Melancon finds himself, that Bailey's effective, that Atchison and Hill are healthy.

With respect to the lineup, I hope they re-sign Papi and Ross and that along with Pedroia, Middlebrooks and Ellsbury that they can put up some runs.

Who should they go after in free agency?  Who knows?  It doesn't look like there are big names out there who are worth big money.  But maybe the Sox can revisit the old Moneyball approach, but with deeper pockets.  I can't remember the exact quote, but if memory serves Billy Beane talked about breaking the season down into thirds to evaluate the team and figure out what to do next.  Maybe the Red Sox should find out who in their system is capable of helping the team get back to the playoffs, then look around and steal a page from the Yankees' old playbook by picking up mid-to-high priced guys mid-season when teams decide to sell or give more playing time to their younger players.  It's not a formula that I expect will help them make the playoffs in 2013, but maybe between the deep pockets and some tradeable assets, that lays the groundwork for 2014.  At the very least, hopefully the team will be relevant and maybe even fun to watch in August and September.

One last thing.  Fire Bobby V.  Yesterday.  He's not to blame for the state of the franchise, but his bizarro communication skills definitely count as "part of the problem".

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Breaking News

The recovery period for A-Rod's injury will be longer and require more rehab because he broke his slapping hand.


Thursday, April 5, 2012

Opening Day 2012

Random thoughts while taking the day off to watch Opening Day

I'll really miss Terry Francona and Theo Epstein. It's a shame the 2011 season ended the way it did. Maybe it was time for a change, but they each deserve a lot of credit for 2004 and 2007. It's so rare that someone leaves on great terms, like Dave Roberts. All too often, players and management who should be revered eventually move on with ill feelings, like Keith Foulke.

Nice to see Ortiz go the other way for a double in the second. Much as I like Jon Lester, he's not close to being as effective as Justin Verlander. It's the fifth inning and the Tigers have put the lead off hitter on base in each inning so far. That's not a recipe for success. I'm very impressed that he's put up zeros so far given that every inning has started with the first batter reaching base. Lester continues to show that he's a very good pitcher but whether or not he is a true ace is still open to debate.

When there were rumors about the Red Sox hiring Bobby Valentine, I got nervous. Valentine has always struck me as someone who wants (and possibly needs) to be the center of attention and for everyone to know how right he is. Some of his assessments of players' strengths and weaknesses during Spring Training made me cringe. I believe it was Doubront who struggled in one start and did well in his following start. Valentine's comments following Doubront's improvement sounded like "He did really well because he listened to my advice. So long as he listens to me and does what I say, he'll do well." While I love Valentine's focus on fundamentals, I expect Valentine's general attitude will become a major problem this season.

Schilling is a complete hypocrite for claiming he knows what's going on in the Red Sox clubhouse and that the players already dislike Valentine, since this is the type of media opinion that he claimed had no merit when he was a player, but that doesn't mean he's wrong.

What different feel the Red Sox have this spring, completely ignoring the managerial change. It's not just that many experts pick them to finish behind the Rays and Yankees. There are major questions about the corner outfield spots, shortstop, the rotation and the bullpen. The Red Sox' opening day DL probably has a higher salary than some second division teams.

The Scutaro trade still feels odd. Aviles may be adequate in the field and a possible upgrade at the plate, but I'll be very surprised if he's the starting shortstop in September. My hope is that the Scutaro and Lowrie trades weren't just small market salary dumps but a sign that Iglesias will be ready for the majors soon, that Aviles is a stopgap in the meantime and that Scutaro's salary could be used more effectively elsewhere. I'm OK with not knowing the true story. While it's confusing, it's still much better for the team than Lou Gorman announcing in advance who he intended to trade and then being surprised at his lack of negotiating leverage.

Can Bard pitch effectively for six plus innings at a time? If he and Doubront are effective as starters in the first few months of the season, what's their innings ceiling for the season? 170? I'm OK with the Sox giving both of them a shot, with Cook waiting in Pawtucket, a Dice K as a possible option around mid-season and Oswalt as a possibility.

I remember being surprised when the Yankees cut ties with Aceves and excited when the Red Sox signed him. It seemed like a good, inexpensive signing at the time. Who knew he'd be so valuable to the team in '11, let alone the opening day closer in '12? Best of all, he seems like a great mix of intelligence and Tavarez-esque bat shit crazy. The Globe had an article last year that mentioned him wearing #91 because Dennis Rodman was his favorite basketball player. He wanted to start, they let him try, told him "You didn't make the cut, but might need to take Beckett's start unless...wait...never mind, you're the closer." I'd bet if he had the option to personalize his uniform, a la the XFL, he'd change it to "Uh. Save Us."

I wish Varitek and Wakefield well. I'll miss watching bullpen catchers try to corral Wakefield's knuckler during pre-game warm ups. The pitch really did seem to move like he'd coated it with the wood repellant from It Happens Every Spring. The Red Sox should remember to send Dan Duquette a thank you note to commemorate their retirements. I really did get excited when the Red Sox signed Wake. I loved reading about him when he came up with the Pirates and about getting help from the Niekros. I love weird, underdog baseball stories like his - signed as a first baseman, wasn't going to make it, decided to give it a shot as a knuckleballer. Utility guys with five different gloves (Randy Kutcher), ambidextrous pitchers (Greg Harris), large, lovable and effective relievers (Rich Garces), pitchers who hit in a pinch outside of inter league games ( Dick Drago), utility players who pitch in a pinch (David McCarty), switch-hitting relievers (JC Romero), catchers who yell at their pitchers in effective but unintelligible Spanglish (Tony Pena), journeyman minor leaguers who eventually get their chance (Chris Coste), chronologically challenged players (Jamie Moyer and Julio Franco) and guys who reinvent themselves to keep playing (Wake, Ron Mahay and Rick Ankiel) always make me smile.

On to other sports...

Kudos to the Celtics for not going quietly. They've beaten the bad teams and lost to the good ones. I don't expect them to goo too deep in the playoffs, but they're battling hard and that's good enough for me.

I love seeing that there's still fire in Garnett. Ainge deserves a ton of credit for picking up Bass (for Big Baby) and Pietrus. Their lack of big men may or may not be exposed in the playoffs. They get killed on the boards by teams with a big front line, like the Lakers, but it's possible that won't do them in. They still struggle mightily in the fourth quarter if the other team plays good defense because their half court offense boils down to a contested outside shot by Pierce. Speaking of their offense...

Despite how Rondo racks up numbers, I still think he hurts the team a lot more than he helps in close games. The Celtics don't need him to score a ton in the fourth quarter. They just need him to be more effective in the half court set.

I watched the fourth quarter of the overtime game against the Knicks where Rondo put up ridiculous numbers but (at least while I was watching) Jeremy Lin was a catalyst in the Knicks' offense, causing havoc with his penetration that led to double teams and guys cutting into space and being open because of Lin, while Rondo looked like a spectator. Rondo's contributions to the half court offense involved giving up the ball at the top of the key and disappearing apart from an occasional offensive rebound or letting his defender play way off him and forcing a pass to Pierce, who is double-covered sometimes before he even receives the ball.

I love what Rondo does bring to the table but find it maddening that he's been in the league this long but still hasn't improved on his two most glaring late game weaknesses - the inability to keep the defense honest by hitting an uncontested outside shot, and the fear to go to the free throw line. I wish he'd fix at least one of those two gaping holes. I really hope I'm wrong.

The Celtics play the Bulls tonight. I may be able to watch. Rose may play. An ESPN article talked about him practicing. The link to the article actually said "Bulls Rose (groin) takes contact, to face Celts?" Comedy.

The Bruins have done well this season, despite battling some level of Lord Stanley's Hangover. At times they've looked unstoppable. Other times, bored. Last year's run was unbelievable. It's odd to think about how close they came to getting beaten in the first round by the Habs. Had Chara's skate been turned slightly, there would have been one less duck parade.

Speaking of coming so close, I loved the Patriots season. The Giants were the only team I worried about them facing in the playoffs. Scary flashbacks. And yet, had Brady connected with Welker late in the fourth or if the Pats recovered any of those fumbles... So close.

I still laugh when I see comments about the Patriots record against "winning" teams since they didn't beat a team in the regular season that finished above .500. Of course, the Pats really only had one opportunity to do so - against the Steelers. Had the Pats beaten the Giants in the regular season, that wouldn't have "counted" since the Giants would have then finished the season at 8-8. That's like comparing an 8th inning reliever's "save percentage" against a closer's. It's not really a save opportunity for the set up man since he's not going to be allowed to finish the game. Technically, had the Pats lost one of their games against the Jets, the Jets would have finished above .500, thereby making the other Pats win against the Jets a "quality" win. Absurd, but so is the entire argument about the Pats' record and their schedule.

The Pats received the standard divisional champ schedule - playing the other divisional winners in their conference. That two of the other three prior division winners finished at or well well below .500 (hello, Indianapolis!) should just make people more impressed by the Patriots' amazing run since the 2001 season. Even the season there the Patriots lost Brady in the first game, they went 11-5 and nearly made the playoffs rather than tank the season to get the #1 pick in the draft.

So what was the Patriots' record against teams that went above .500 against the rest of the league? 7-2. The Steelers, for comparison, were 5-4 against teams that were over .500 against the rest of the league.

I also had a good laugh when I heard one NFL fan on a local radio show say he was rooting for the quarterback who was a humble underdog coming out of college who had nothing handed to him, no one believed in him but he just worked hard to beat the odds and turned himself into a star. It took me a while to realize that this guy wasn't talking about the sixth round draft choice who was a backup in college and spent his rookie season as the fourth string quarterback. No, he was talking about the guy who was the #1 pick in the draft who, despite being guaranteed an enormous contract before ever taking a snap, said he'd never play for the team that wanted to draft him, instead forcing a trade to a big market in the Northeast. What an unassuming kid. What an underdog. What a feel good story. There's the guy to root for.

I love the Pats offseason moves - nothing overly big in terms of cost but nice pickups for depth. Let's see if they can find an improved pass rush in the draft and if Gronk can return to full Gronk-ness next season. Good luck to Law Firm.

The Jets pick up of Tebow may be a great move, especially since the Jets' offensive coordinator installed the wildcat under the Dolphins. It could also become a slow motion train wreck. Memo to Sanchez: If your teammates anonymously question your leadership and your response is to challenge them to say that publicly...you're actually helping to make their point.

MLB has an ad for its Extra Innings package where they show highlights from the end of the 2011 season, including Longoria's home run to send the Rays to the postseason. The funny part is that the voice over says "If a playoff clinching miracle falls into the stands and no one is there to watch, did it really happen?" They probably weren't trying to make fun of the Tampa Bay fans, but I'm surprised no one thought to alter the language slightly just to be on the safe side, given their attendance problems despite the team's success.

Lester pitched well, Verlander pitched better, the Sox rallied to tie it up in the ninth, and Melancon and Aceves combined to give up a run in the ninth. Get well soon, Andrew Bailey.