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I hate to sound like a pessimist or front-runner, but the only way I see the Celtics winning is if both Gasol and Odom have bad games. Short of that, I expect the Lakers to win going away tonight. I'm still hopeful and trying to stay positive, but the Game 6 blowout with Perkins going down feels like a punch to the gut and I'm waiting for the uppercut to the chin.
Let's hope for a good game and that the focus after the game is on the players of the winning team. If the Lakers win, congrats to them and the Celtics have every right to hold their heads up. A lot of people expected them to lose in the first round, including myself. If the Celtics win, congrats to them for running the D-Wade, LeBron, Dwight Howard, Kobe gauntlet and the Lakers have every right to hold their heads up. I hope there's minimal talk about either team or its players being labelled chokers, not showing up, not being able to win the big one, etc.
Biggest question for the Lakers: How will Bynum's knee hold up? If he can play effectively, that's a huge plus for the Lakers, especially with Perkins out. None of the Celtics bigs can match his athleticism. Even if he can't jump, he can outrebound any big the Celtics put on him. If he can play reasonably effectively, that makes things much easier for Gasol.
Biggest key for the Lakers: A big game from Gasol. If Gasol can score at least reasonably effectively and put Wallace and/or Garnett in foul trouble, this might be a blowout for the Lakers. A smart game from Artest on both ends of the floor would also go a long way toward helping the Lakers repeat.
X-factor 1 for the Lakers: Lamar Odom. If Bynum can't play effectively, it's up to Odom to help the Lakers take advantage of Perkins' absence. If Bynum can play, an even mildly effective Odom could still cause major headaches for the Celtics from a match-up perspective. I'd at least try putting Fisher, Kobe, Odom, Gasol and Bynum on the floor at the same time and force the Celtics to either play Davis, Wallace and Garnett at the same time or put Pierce on Odom. Going big like that seems like a no brainer to me. If the Celtics go big, they have to sit Rondo, Pierce or Allen. That's one less scorer unless they sit Rondo. If they sit Rondo, the Celtics can't run in transition as effectively and there's more work for Pierce or Allen bringing up the ball, especially if Fisher and/or Kobe pressure the ball. Plus, no matter what the Lakers decide, the Celtics can't use Tony Allen on Kobe unless they're willing to make things tougher on their other offensive players.
X-factor 2 for the Lakers: Kobe. I see Kobe as the second X-factor since he may see an absolutely dominating performance in a Game 7 against the Celtics as a way to cement his legacy. Simply winning should be enough for him but it may not be. The smart play is to try see if the Lakers can use the matchups to their advantage, racking up points and/or fouls, and having having the offense revolve around Kobe a little less. I may be way off base but I think there's at least a decent chance that he'll try to do more than he needs to. Then again, he's Kobe Bryant, and if he's on then that might work just as well for the Lakers as exploiting matchups.
Biggest question for Celtics: How will they defend the Lakers bigs? If they can't do a decent job against the Lakers bigs, they're looking at a less than jovial flight home.
Biggest keys for the Celtics: A big game from either Pierce or Ray Allen and a smarter game from Rondo. The Celtics need one of their scorers to step up and they need Rondo to do a much better job running the offense. He made too many lazy and/or ill-advised passes on drives and attempted too many wild shots on drives, trying to get enough English on the ball to use the glass from bad angles.
X-factor 1 for the Celtics: Rasheed Wallace. This is exactly the type of situation they signed him for, looking for him to help out when they need him in a big game. Can he play solid defense, rebound and help a little on offense for thirty five minutes?
X-factor 2 for the Celtics: Scalabrine. And yes, I'm completely serious. I don't think the Celtics can expect to go with just Garnett, Wallace and Davis as their bigs. Shelden Williams was absolutely atrocious in Game 6. I have more faith in Scalabrine than Williams. He's not as athletic as any of the Lakers bigs and couldn't shut any one of them down if they're on their game, but he plays smarter defense than he's usually given credit for and might be effective for a small stretch here or there, especially if Kobe's in hero mode. Scalabrine must be beyond rusty, but he also has more offensive upside than Williams if he can knock down a three. Frightening thought, Scalabrine being a potential X-factor for the Celtics.
