Saturday, July 14, 2007

Yes, the Yankees still scare me

It's mid-July, they Yankees are in third place, ten back and a game below .500. And yet they still scare me.

Simply put, they have resources like no other team in baseball. They can afford to pick up guys who are underperforming and have huge contracts even if those guys make only minimal contributions over their current players. If they have someone who is overpaid and is underperforming, they can ship the player out to another team while still paying most of his contract. As a Red Sox fan, I'm aware that the Red Sox have the ability to do this on occasion (how much are we paying Renteria this year and next to man short for the Braves again?) but not to the extent that the Yankees can. And if you think their resources are impressive now, keep in mind that they'll be playing in a new ballpark in 2009.

In other words, they have the means to address many weaknesses, which makes it tough to look at the standings and say "Ten back in the division, eight back in the wildcard, it's mid July and they're still below .500? Stick a fork in them!" They also have so many players on the team who are capable of putting together hot stretches that you almost expect the team to go through a couple stretches where they win eight in a row, sixteen out of twenty, etc.

I'm just not used to the Yankees struggling at this point in the season. It feels like being in a cheesey horror movie where you know the quasi-human villain isn't really dead, but one where your character is at least smart enough to observe the body from a distance rather than being the fool who stands over the body and says "I'm pretty sure he's dead."

It's so unnerving that back on May 30th, I sent the following mail to a friend who is a huge Yankees fan. (For those playing at home, the Yankees were thirteen and a half games back, and seven games below .500 and tied with the Devil Rays for last place at the time.)

What in the name of Billy Martin is going on in New York?

I was watching part of a Yankees game on YES over the weekend and I couldn't believe my ears. The announcers were talking about how the Yankees had gotten jobbed on two blown calls on stolen bases and a questionable strike call to end the game. No problem, it happens. (Especially since Jeter has all but patented the short-armed phantom tag on stolen base attempts.) What struck me was that the announcers said the Yankees were having a special meeting with MLB to discuss the calls. Ten minutes later, Michael Kay was talking about how the Yankees had just had a grueling stretch, facing three straight division leaders, and had acquitted themselves well by winning three out of eight games. He explained his logic in more depth by saying that if you combined those three teams' wins and losses, the rest of MLB had an average winning percentage of .350 against them, whereas the Yankees had just compiled a winning percentage of .375. The YES gang spent the rest of the evening talking about how Guidry led the team in '78 and how when one team faces more injuries than another team in the first half of the year, the commissioner's office instructs the injury fairy (who is apparently second cousin to the Aflac duck) to even things out after the all star break.

There are people pointing out that the Yankees flat out suck right now, right? No more "when you look at runs scored vs. runs allowed, we should be at least two games ahead of the Devil Rays" little victories or "if we sweep the next series, we'll be within eight games of the playoffs if the season were to end today" crap. I mean, there are actually sane Yankees fans on this planet who can look at what's going on intelligently, right?

I don't consider the season over by any stretch. I qualified "suck" with "right now". The Yankees still scare me. I'm assuming they won't stay in last place in the division for long. The Yankees have four pitchers on pace to pitch in over 80 games, but I trust Cashman will pick up additional serviceable relievers when Proctor, Myers and Vizcaino's arms all fall off. While I don't expect Posada will continue to hit over .350, I also don't expect Cano and Abreu to continue to hit below .250. I expect Cashman to fleece teams into somehow giving up Todd Helton, Torii Hunter, Johan Santana for Phelps, Pavano, some overhyped prospects who will completely wash out, a bag of balls and a blank check and go on an absolute tear in the not too distant future. I expect Jeter, Damon, Posada, Giambi, Cano and Matsui to take turns putting the team on their backs to eek out close games while A-Rod hits .800 with a 2.500 slugging percentage when the Yankees in games where either team is leading by at least four runs. I expect that at some point, there'll be at least a 50/50 chance that a Yankee starter can get through six innings and give up three runs or less. That, or Steinbrenner will actually name Costanza as the new GM.

Please tell me that there are Yankees fans who have some sense for what's going on with the team right now and that Michael Kay and Suzyn "That's the Most Dramatic Sandwich I've Ever Eaten" Waldman are just morons. I don't know why I need to know this, but I do. You're my only hope.

Thankfully, my friend has a sense of humor and didn't reply with something like "We so own you that even when we're fourteen games back you're scared."

Since that time, the Yankees have played better. They had a nine game win streak and are just a game below .500 at the time of this writing. (Although that does mean that apart from that stretch of games, they were still below .500.) If memory serves, their first twenty three games after the All Star break come against teams that are below .500, so they definitely have opportunities to get back on another hot streak.

Matsui and Cano have hit better. Jeter and Posada have cooled off a little but are still hitting well. Giambi's on the DL, though I've heard a few Yankees fans say that getting him out of the lineup is a huge plus for the team. Damon's struggled with injuries, has been in and out of the lineup and has even seen some time at first base. (Who had 1.5 seasons on the over/under for when the Yankees would start trying to move Damon? I thought he'd have an off year, but that Yankees fans would still be happy with the contract until the end of this year.)

I don't know what to make of A-Rod. His month-by-month OPS: 1.297 in April, .782 in May, 1.281 in June, .835 in July so far. He's having an incredible (contract) year, but he still doesn't scare me as much as guys like Jeter, Posada and Matsui if the game's on the line. A-Rod's contract situation and the Yankees' current stance fascinate me, but that's a topic for another post.

Clemens has not pitched well enough to justify his contract, but he has a lower ERA than Pettite, Mussina or Igawa and pitched better than you might expect from a soon-to-be forty five year old with a tired groin. Mussina has pitched better over the past six weeks. The Yankees haven't lost a starting pitcher in the past month or two and should have Hughes back in their rotation soon. The bullpen's still very much overworked. Farnsworth, Bruney, Myers, Vizcaino and Proctor are on pace to pitch in between 68 and 81 games each over the course of the season. I can't imagine their current non-Rivera relievers will be terribly dependable at the end of the season, but I still expect that the Yankees will pick up more serviceable relievers prior to the trade deadline. Otsuka and Gagne are the two names most commonly thrown out there in connection with the Yankees.

So what does this all mean? I keep telling myself that if the Red Sox play well that they make the playoffs and that's all that matters. And yet, I still peek at the Yankees' score while I'm watching or listening to the Sox. I check the box scores and laugh when I see Vizcaino and Proctor pitching in their third straight games. I cringe when I hear about MLB trade rumors that involve players who could help the Yankees (Teixeira and Helton come quickly to mind). I think about how the Yankees have yet to play their best ball.


I think about how the Red Sox have struggled over the past six weeks. Then I take a deep breath and exhale. I watch Papi put a ball into the right field seats at Fenway for the first time since April. I watch Crisp driving the ball to leg out a stand up triple. I watch Varitek put one into the center field bleachers. I watch Lugo place after a perfect bunt down the third base line. I watch Pedroia battle and battle and finally lift a ball over the second baseman to knock in a run. I see Crisp and Pedroia pull off a double steal. I watch Timlin run his scoreless innings streak into double digits. I watch Delcarmen start to trust his stuff. I see Drew looking comfortable in the leadoff role. I watch Hinske homer when he gets a start because Drew's hamstring is acting up. I remember that the Red Sox have yet to play their best ball either, but they have a ten game lead in the division.

Then I wonder what my father's friend, a die hard Yankees fan, will say during the Red Sox / Mariners games early next month and smile. As the t-shirts say, life is good.

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