A-Rod's Contract

The Alex Rodriguez contact situation fascinates me. I'm sure I'll screw up some of the numbers, but it's the almost political posing back and forth in the press and the Rangers' indirect involvement that I find so interesting.

Let's take a step back and give Scott Boras some credit here. Forget about the fact that he got Tom Hicks and the Rangers to bid against themselves. He was able to get A-Rod the richest contract in the history of baseball, but also had the foresight to add an out clause so that A-Rod could become a free agent again at the end of the 2007 season in case he felt A-Rod could sign an even *more* lucrative contract at that point in his career.

A-Rod is due to earn $25M/yr for the next three years, but Boras has been suggesting that A-Rod could sign a contract for about $30M/yr for about six years if he were to become a free agent again. At the very least, it's not difficult to imagine that Boras could find someone to pay A-Rod more than he would be getting over the next three years. Plus, hitting the free agent market at thirty two sounds a lot better than hitting the free agent market at thirty five. That doesn't even take into consideration the fact that A-Rod may be sick of New York. You never know, he may be willing to take a pay cut just to get out of New York. So, we can see why A-Rod might want to opt out of his contract at the end of the season.

The Yankees recently announced (officially or otherwise) that they would like to talk to A-Rod about a contract extension but that they will not attempt to re-sign him if he opts out of his current contract to become a free agent. Remember that as part of the trade that brought A-Rod to New York, the Rangers are paying about $8M/yr of A-Rod's contract. So the Yankees are currently paying A-Rod "only" $17M/yr. If they extend A-Rod's contract, the Rangers continue to chip in towards A-Rod's salary. If A-Rod opts out, the Rangers are off the hook. It's pretty safe to say that the Rangers are silently rooting for A-Rod to opt out.

Of course, the Yankees have the financial resources necessary to pay A-Rod without the help of larger market teams like the Rangers. They could re-sign A-Rod if he decides to become a free agent and afford to pay him $30M/yr, but it makes sense that they'd prefer to have the Rangers continue to chip in. Plus, the Yankees may believe that A-Rod is worth $17M/yr to them over the next three years, but not $30M/yr. Actually, the numbers are even higher after you take the luxury tax into consideration. Regardless, I don't think the Yankees want to say that A-Rod is worth $30M/yr as they negotiate with Posada to deal with the fact that A-Rod would be earning almost twice as much as Jeter.

So the Yankees make the public threat that if A-Rod opts out that they won't re-sign him. Maybe that lowers A-Rod's market value. If A-Rod becomes a free agent and a team like the Angels or Cubs decide that they're interested, maybe they won't be as worried about the Yankees trumping their offers and won't make outrageous Tom Hicks bidding against himself offers of $180M over six years. Maybe A-Rod and/or Boras worry about that and decide to negotiate with the Yankees now. Maybe the Yankees are bluffing and would still be interested, but they hope/expect public threat will make A-Rod more affordable to them. Maybe the Yankees made the threat as a challenge in an attempt to get A-Rod to tear up the rest of his contract and end his time in the Bronx.

Here's the part that really shocked me. When asked about his contract status and the Yankees offer/threat, A-Rod said he won't discuss his contract during the season. The shocking part? It was the right thing to say and it got the issue out of the press fairly quickly. While I think that was the pretty obvious way to handle the situation, it still surprised me because I half expected A-Rod to say something calculated but ill advised. Maybe he'd talk about his favorite ballparks, the desire to raise his kids in an area of the country. Maybe a reporter would successfully bait him on whether he's considered playing for Lou Piniella again or the fact that a team that signed him to an eight year contract would likely receive the priveledge of having him setting the all time home run record in their uniform. A-Rod made the wise choice and kept his mouth shut.

Needless to say, I'm really curious to see what happens at the end of the season.

If A-Rod does opt out, I don't want to see the Red Sox sign him. While I'll admit I was bitter when the Yankees made the trade to get A-Rod, I was relieved when the Sox/Rangers trade talks over A-Rod broke down. As a friend at the time said, it seemed like the Red Sox were trying to out-Yankee the Yankees. He's exceptionally talented and one of the best players in baseball, but I just don't want him on my team. I don't think the Mariners or Rangers missed his leadership when he left.

For lack of a better explanation, I don't think he plays the game the right way, either on or off the field.

Years ago, a reporter asked A-Rod years ago about how he felt about comparisons to Jeter, his close friend at the time. A-Rod pointed out that Jeter had it easier than he did because opposing teams didn't consider "shutting down Jeter" as the top priority to winning the game. Was that an accurate statement? Absolutely. Jeter was still a very good hitter at the time, but Jeter was probably the fourth or fifth most feared hitter in the Yankees lineup at the time. Even now, Jeter gets praised for playing sound baseball by bunting runners over in the eighth or ninth inning with the Yankees down a run. How many other superstars aren't asked to swing away in that type of situation? Very few. I felt the same way about Jeter / Nomar comparisons when the Red Sox offense relied on Mo Vaughn and Nomar, and not always in that order. But no matter how accurate and heartfelt A-Rod's comment was, it was also ill advised and really damaged his relationship with Jeter. A-Rod would have been better off keeping his mouth shut, changing the subject, or flat out lying. Actually, that's a big reason I was surprised and pleased to see A-Rod shut down the contract talk by simply saying it wasn't something he would address during the regular season.

On the field, the lasting images I have of A-Rod are him celebrating after a walkoff home run in April as if he was a reserve infielder just called up from AAA but choking in the clutch when it matters. The other memorable A-Rod moments are him slapping the ball out of Bronson Arroyo's glove in the 2004 ALCS and then proclaiming his innocence, shouting "Mine", "Got it", or "Hah" (depending on who you believe) to successfully cause a backup third baseman to think his shortstop was going to catch the ball, and popping up awkwardly out of a slide into second to elbow Dustin Pedroia in the groin. To call these types of plays bush league or even little league might be giving A-Rod too much credit.

In fact, when I saw this item at The Onion's on line store, I immediately thought of A-Rod. Sure, there are people who say "If you're not cheating, you're not trying" or who consider everything from the hidden ball trick to deking a runner to be cheating. Maybe cheating isn't even the right term, maybe "bush league play that is likely to get you drilled in your next at bat" is, though it's a bit verbose. Had A-Rod had another at bat in that Blue Jays game or series, I would have expected the first pitch to be at his backside and I would have been surprised to see his teammates rush to his aid. The "Mine" play is my personal favorite because not even Joe Torre came to his defense after the game.

I didn't want to see A-Rod wearing a Red Sox uniform in 2004 and I feel more strongly about that now. The only real question is, as a Red Sox fan, do I want to see him still wearing pinstripes in 2008?

Yes, the Yankees still scare me

It's mid-July, they Yankees are in third place, ten back and a game below .500. And yet they still scare me.

Simply put, they have resources like no other team in baseball. They can afford to pick up guys who are underperforming and have huge contracts even if those guys make only minimal contributions over their current players. If they have someone who is overpaid and is underperforming, they can ship the player out to another team while still paying most of his contract. As a Red Sox fan, I'm aware that the Red Sox have the ability to do this on occasion (how much are we paying Renteria this year and next to man short for the Braves again?) but not to the extent that the Yankees can. And if you think their resources are impressive now, keep in mind that they'll be playing in a new ballpark in 2009.

In other words, they have the means to address many weaknesses, which makes it tough to look at the standings and say "Ten back in the division, eight back in the wildcard, it's mid July and they're still below .500? Stick a fork in them!" They also have so many players on the team who are capable of putting together hot stretches that you almost expect the team to go through a couple stretches where they win eight in a row, sixteen out of twenty, etc.

I'm just not used to the Yankees struggling at this point in the season. It feels like being in a cheesey horror movie where you know the quasi-human villain isn't really dead, but one where your character is at least smart enough to observe the body from a distance rather than being the fool who stands over the body and says "I'm pretty sure he's dead."

It's so unnerving that back on May 30th, I sent the following mail to a friend who is a huge Yankees fan. (For those playing at home, the Yankees were thirteen and a half games back, and seven games below .500 and tied with the Devil Rays for last place at the time.)

What in the name of Billy Martin is going on in New York?

I was watching part of a Yankees game on YES over the weekend and I couldn't believe my ears. The announcers were talking about how the Yankees had gotten jobbed on two blown calls on stolen bases and a questionable strike call to end the game. No problem, it happens. (Especially since Jeter has all but patented the short-armed phantom tag on stolen base attempts.) What struck me was that the announcers said the Yankees were having a special meeting with MLB to discuss the calls. Ten minutes later, Michael Kay was talking about how the Yankees had just had a grueling stretch, facing three straight division leaders, and had acquitted themselves well by winning three out of eight games. He explained his logic in more depth by saying that if you combined those three teams' wins and losses, the rest of MLB had an average winning percentage of .350 against them, whereas the Yankees had just compiled a winning percentage of .375. The YES gang spent the rest of the evening talking about how Guidry led the team in '78 and how when one team faces more injuries than another team in the first half of the year, the commissioner's office instructs the injury fairy (who is apparently second cousin to the Aflac duck) to even things out after the all star break.

There are people pointing out that the Yankees flat out suck right now, right? No more "when you look at runs scored vs. runs allowed, we should be at least two games ahead of the Devil Rays" little victories or "if we sweep the next series, we'll be within eight games of the playoffs if the season were to end today" crap. I mean, there are actually sane Yankees fans on this planet who can look at what's going on intelligently, right?

I don't consider the season over by any stretch. I qualified "suck" with "right now". The Yankees still scare me. I'm assuming they won't stay in last place in the division for long. The Yankees have four pitchers on pace to pitch in over 80 games, but I trust Cashman will pick up additional serviceable relievers when Proctor, Myers and Vizcaino's arms all fall off. While I don't expect Posada will continue to hit over .350, I also don't expect Cano and Abreu to continue to hit below .250. I expect Cashman to fleece teams into somehow giving up Todd Helton, Torii Hunter, Johan Santana for Phelps, Pavano, some overhyped prospects who will completely wash out, a bag of balls and a blank check and go on an absolute tear in the not too distant future. I expect Jeter, Damon, Posada, Giambi, Cano and Matsui to take turns putting the team on their backs to eek out close games while A-Rod hits .800 with a 2.500 slugging percentage when the Yankees in games where either team is leading by at least four runs. I expect that at some point, there'll be at least a 50/50 chance that a Yankee starter can get through six innings and give up three runs or less. That, or Steinbrenner will actually name Costanza as the new GM.

Please tell me that there are Yankees fans who have some sense for what's going on with the team right now and that Michael Kay and Suzyn "That's the Most Dramatic Sandwich I've Ever Eaten" Waldman are just morons. I don't know why I need to know this, but I do. You're my only hope.

Thankfully, my friend has a sense of humor and didn't reply with something like "We so own you that even when we're fourteen games back you're scared."

Since that time, the Yankees have played better. They had a nine game win streak and are just a game below .500 at the time of this writing. (Although that does mean that apart from that stretch of games, they were still below .500.) If memory serves, their first twenty three games after the All Star break come against teams that are below .500, so they definitely have opportunities to get back on another hot streak.

Matsui and Cano have hit better. Jeter and Posada have cooled off a little but are still hitting well. Giambi's on the DL, though I've heard a few Yankees fans say that getting him out of the lineup is a huge plus for the team. Damon's struggled with injuries, has been in and out of the lineup and has even seen some time at first base. (Who had 1.5 seasons on the over/under for when the Yankees would start trying to move Damon? I thought he'd have an off year, but that Yankees fans would still be happy with the contract until the end of this year.)

I don't know what to make of A-Rod. His month-by-month OPS: 1.297 in April, .782 in May, 1.281 in June, .835 in July so far. He's having an incredible (contract) year, but he still doesn't scare me as much as guys like Jeter, Posada and Matsui if the game's on the line. A-Rod's contract situation and the Yankees' current stance fascinate me, but that's a topic for another post.

Clemens has not pitched well enough to justify his contract, but he has a lower ERA than Pettite, Mussina or Igawa and pitched better than you might expect from a soon-to-be forty five year old with a tired groin. Mussina has pitched better over the past six weeks. The Yankees haven't lost a starting pitcher in the past month or two and should have Hughes back in their rotation soon. The bullpen's still very much overworked. Farnsworth, Bruney, Myers, Vizcaino and Proctor are on pace to pitch in between 68 and 81 games each over the course of the season. I can't imagine their current non-Rivera relievers will be terribly dependable at the end of the season, but I still expect that the Yankees will pick up more serviceable relievers prior to the trade deadline. Otsuka and Gagne are the two names most commonly thrown out there in connection with the Yankees.

So what does this all mean? I keep telling myself that if the Red Sox play well that they make the playoffs and that's all that matters. And yet, I still peek at the Yankees' score while I'm watching or listening to the Sox. I check the box scores and laugh when I see Vizcaino and Proctor pitching in their third straight games. I cringe when I hear about MLB trade rumors that involve players who could help the Yankees (Teixeira and Helton come quickly to mind). I think about how the Yankees have yet to play their best ball.

I think about how the Red Sox have struggled over the past six weeks. Then I take a deep breath and exhale. I watch Papi put a ball into the right field seats at Fenway for the first time since April. I watch Crisp driving the ball to leg out a stand up triple. I watch Varitek put one into the center field bleachers. I watch Lugo place after a perfect bunt down the third base line. I watch Pedroia battle and battle and finally lift a ball over the second baseman to knock in a run. I see Crisp and Pedroia pull off a double steal. I watch Timlin run his scoreless innings streak into double digits. I watch Delcarmen start to trust his stuff. I see Drew looking comfortable in the leadoff role. I watch Hinske homer when he gets a start because Drew's hamstring is acting up. I remember that the Red Sox have yet to play their best ball either, but they have a ten game lead in the division.

Then I wonder what my father's friend, a die hard Yankees fan, will say during the Red Sox / Mariners games early next month and smile. As the t-shirts say, life is good.